A Lesson in Betting Kentucky Derby Futures

Ted Noffey went undefeated in 2025, claiming the Breeder's Cup Juvenile as his final victory of the year. His reward: He was voted Two-Year-Old Champion, stamping himself as the early favorite for the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

Indeed, the first three of six future book wagering pools have been held. In each case, Ted Noffey has ended up listed as the individual favorite at anywhere from 6-1 to 10-1 odds. The actual favorite in each case has been the mutual field, an occurrence that happens every year because of the likelihood that a late-maturing superstar might quickly rise up through the masses through Derby preps.

To the chagrin of Ted Noffey's supporters who back the three-year-old in one or more future odds pools, the colt won't be in the starting gate for the Derby on the first Saturday in May. He has officially been taken off the Derby trail by Owner Mike Repole and Trainer Todd Pletcher due to what has been described as sore chins. According to these sources, he'll be getting 90 days of rest before he resumes training.

For certain, this is disappointing for connections who believed we were a great candidate to win the Derby and perhaps take down the Triple Crown (Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes).

When addressing the press about Ted Noffey's training stoppage, Pletcher told reporters:

“I wasn’t happy the way he was moving the last couple of days, sent him for evaluation, and he’s got some bone bruising. We’re going to give him 90 days off and hopefully have him back for Saratoga. He later added, “It’s frustrating, disappointing, but we got to do the right thing by the horse."

It's equally disappointing for online and retail horseplayers who wagered on Ted Noffey. All of them quickly learned why the two-year-old champion's future odds are always appealing in the first three to four pools. There are two risks in betting on any horse three to four months before a big race like the Derby.

First, there is the possibility that the horse in question will not progress as a three-year-old, only to be passed horses whose three-year-old form was not yet evident when they were two-year-olds. It's amazing how much young orses can mature in a matter of months.

Second, injury is always a possibility with young horses whose bones have not yet fully developed. This is a lesson that has surely been learned by Ted Noffey supporters. It's very difficult to get young horses through the horse racing wars all the way to the first Saturday in May.

As a point of reference, only two horses have completed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile/ Derby double in the 40 years prior. That was Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016. We can make that twice in 41 years now.

If you are intent on betting Kentucky Derby futures, you need to ask yourself one important question. Is the price being offered on the horse you want worth the risk?